Blood Test Biomarker Shows Promise in Predicting Psychosis Onset

International study led by Oxford researchers identifies microRNAs that could help predict future development of the disorder.

Generic image of a blood sample vial in a laboratory setting.
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Generic image of a blood sample vial in a laboratory setting.

An international study, led by researchers from the University of Oxford and Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, has identified potential blood biomarkers that could help predict the future onset of psychosis.

Psychosis affects an individual's perception of reality, potentially leading to unusual beliefs, experiences, and difficulties with thinking and concentration. While Early Detection mental health services can identify those at increased risk, predicting who will develop the disorder remains a significant clinical challenge.
The study, published in World Psychiatry, investigated whether microRNAs – molecules present in the bloodstream that regulate gene expression – could improve this prediction. Researchers measured levels of five microRNAs previously associated with psychosis in two large groups of people at high risk, one in Europe and one in North America. Participants were followed for two years after providing a blood sample, during which time some developed psychosis.
Findings revealed that the levels of these five microRNAs helped distinguish between individuals who later developed psychosis and those who did not, in both groups. This suggests that blood markers could potentially identify individuals most likely to develop psychosis in the coming years.
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"These findings have important implications for mental health care. At present, it is not possible to predict whether someone who is vulnerable to psychosis will, or will not go on to develop the disorder. This study has identified a new ‘biomarker’ for psychosis, a blood test that could allow us to predict whether an individual who is at risk will develop the disorder in the next few years. We think this test has the potential to eventually be used in clinical practice, because we found that it worked well in two large, independent samples of participants. The test could enhance the value of future preventive treatments for psychosis, as it could allow clinicians to offer preventive interventions to those who most need them."

Philip McGuire · Professor of Psychiatry at the University of Oxford and Associate Director of Research & Development at OHFT
Further research is needed before these markers can be used in clinical practice. The paper, “Brain-enriched extracellular vesicle microRNAs could help to predict onset of psychosis in people at clinical high risk”, is available in the current issue of World Psychiatry.
Based on information from the official source: Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust (29/10/2026)